Gasoline and Ethanol

Explore the fuel price and emissions intensity of finished gasoline and ethanol fuels, which are a blend of ethanol and gasoline blendstock.

See the Ethanol page for detailed information about the ethanol production pathways and the blendstock for oxygenate blending (BOB) section for detailed information about the blendstock.

Note: For additional information about scenarios and metrics, see the Definitions page.

Market Projections with Starch Ethanol

Cellulosic Biochemical Ethanol (Future Modeled, High Volume)

Cellulosic Thermochemical Ethanol (Future Modeled, High Volume)

Cellulosic Biochemical Ethanol (Future Modeled, Low Volume)

Starch Ethanol (Current Market)

Key Assumptions

The data and estimates presented here are based on the following key assumptions:

• The fuel price (e.g., Lowest Cost, Lowest Emissions) is associated with a single year. Because we do not provide a time-series trajectory, here we show fuel price at a frozen level for all years so we can offer a range of fuel price values. In the levelized cost of driving and emissions charts, this approach clearly distinguishes effects of fuels from those of vehicle technologies, because fuels remain constant while vehicle technologies change over time.
• The finished fuel price estimates represent retail equivalent prices, and they include distribution costs and taxes.
• The price and emissions estimates shown above are generally calculated from the respective Ethanol and BOB component estimates. (See those pages for details about the fuel blend components.) The estimates are calculated based on the specified blend volume. The exceptions are the projected 2050 fuel pathway estimates for conventional E10 gasoline with starch ethanol, which are based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (EIA, 2020b), described below.
• For conventional gasoline, reformulated gasoline, and high-blend ethanol fuel, we calculate the wholesale fuel price (in dollars per gallon) estimate based on the wholesale prices of starch ethanol and BOBs and the assumed ethanol volume content: 10% ethanol for E10, 15% ethanol for conventional E15 gasoline, and 83% ethanol for E85. To convert wholesale prices to retail prices, we add $0.80/gal based on the 2018 distribution costs ($0.43/gal) and taxes ($0.37/gal) estimated from the 2018 fuel price components in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019 Reference case (EIA, 2019). Prices are converted to dollars per gasoline gallon equivalent using the calculated finished fuel lower heating value (based on lower heating values of ethanol and gasoline blendstock and the ethanol volume blending assumptions) and the lower heating value of gasoline. The lower heating value estimates are from GREET 2018 (Argonne National Laboratory, 2018).
• For reference, the 2018 motor gasoline retail price reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration is $2.81/gal, which includes taxes and represents the sales weighted-average price for all grades (including conventional and reformulated) (EIA, 2020a).
• For conventional E10 with starch ethanol, we also provide a range of 2050 fuel prices to explore the sensitivity of levelized cost of driving to gasoline prices. The 2050 conventional E10 with starch ethanol estimate is from Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (EIA, 2020b). Conventional gasoline (E10) 2050 is from the Reference case, and the high price and low price estimates are from the Annual Energy Outlook High oil price and Low oil price cases, respectively.
• The emissions estimates are calculated based on the ethanol volume assumptions and the respective ethanol and BOB emissions factors. Note that the reference used for biochemical ethanol (Elgowainy et al., 2016) only includes estimates for CO2e emissions, so other air emissions estimates are not presented.
• Where ranges of values are given in the blendstock and/or ethanol tables, we present single average values.
• The lowest CO2e emissions fuel pathway in the 2020 Transportation ATB for gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles and gasoline hybrid electric vehicles is Reformulated E15 gasoline with cellulosic thermochemical ethanol. Alternative fuels including drop-in cellulosic biofuels, other advanced biofuels, and higher blends of these fuels with gasoline may achieve lower emissions levels. Future iterations of the Transportation ATB will include additional biofuel pathways.
• The data downloads include additional detail on assumptions and calculations for each metric.

Definitions

For detailed definitions, see:

CO₂e emissions

Conventional E10 gasoline

Conventional E15 gasoline

Fuel price

High-blend ethanol fuel

NO_X emissions

PM emissions

Reformulated E10 gasoline

Reformulated E15 gasoline

Scenarios

SO_X emissions

Well-to-tank emissions

Well-to-wheels emissions

References

The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.