Gasoline and Ethanol
Explore the fuel price and emissions intensity of finished gasoline and ethanol fuels, which are a blend of ethanol and gasoline blendstock.
See the Ethanol page for detailed information about the ethanol production pathways and the blendstock for oxygenate blending (BOB) section for detailed information about the blendstock.
Emissions estimates use the Argonne National Laboratory's Research & Development Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model (Wang et al., 2023). The underlying source for a value in the table can be seen by placing your mouse cursor over that value. The data sources are also cited—with linked references—in the Key Assumptions section next.
For additional information about scenarios and metrics, see the Definitions page.
Note: These results are highly context dependent and may not represent the optimal values for each fuel pathway. We recommend caution, and review of other sources, before making comparisons between the cases reported in the table above.
Key Assumptions
The data and estimates presented here are based on the following key assumptions:
- Fuel Price: The fuel price (e.g., Lowest Cost, Lowest Emissions) is associated with a single year. Because we do not provide a time-series trajectory, here we show fuel price at a frozen level for all years so we can offer a range of fuel price values. In the levelized cost of driving (LCOD) and emissions charts, this approach clearly distinguishes effects of fuels from those of vehicle technologies because fuels remain constant whereas vehicle technologies change over time.
- Fuel Price Composition: The finished fuel price estimates represent retail equivalent prices, and they include Taxes and Distribution Cost.
- Retrospective Component Estimates: The price and emissions estimates shown above are generally calculated from the respective Ethanol and BOB component estimates. (See those pages for details about the fuel blend components.) The estimates are calculated based on the specified blend volume, if applicable. Refer to the pages for blendstock components, and place your mouse cursor over a value in the table to see specific citations.
- Wholesale Fuel Calculations: For conventional gasoline, reformulated gasoline, and high-blend ethanol fuel, we calculate the wholesale fuel price estimate (in dollars per gallon) based on the wholesale prices of starch ethanol and BOBs and the assumed ethanol volume content: 10% ethanol for E10, 15% ethanol for conventional E15 gasoline, and 83% ethanol for E85.
- Retail Price Conversions: To convert wholesale prices to retail prices, we add the Taxes and Distribution Cost. Prices are converted to dollars per gasoline gallon equivalent using the calculated finished fuel lower heating value (based on lower heating values of ethanol and gasoline blendstock and the ethanol volume blending assumptions) and the lower heating value of gasoline. The lower heating values are from R&D GREET 2023 (Wang et al., 2023).
- Gasoline Retail Price Reference: For reference, the 2023 motor gasoline retail price reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is $3.52/gal (nominal dollars), which includes taxes and represents the sales weighted-average price for all grades (including conventional and reformulated) (EIA, 2024a).
- Conventional E10 with Starch Ethanol: For conventional E10 with starch ethanol, we also provide a range of 2050 fuel prices to explore the sensitivity of LCOD to gasoline prices. The 2050 conventional E10 with starch ethanol estimate is from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2023). Refer to the pages for blendstock components, and place your mouse cursor over a value in the table to see specific citations. Conventional gasoline (E10) 2050 is from the Reference case, and the high price and low price estimates are from the Annual Energy Outlook High oil price and Low oil price cases, respectively.
- Emissions Estimates: The emissions estimates are calculated based on the ethanol volume assumptions and the respective ethanol and BOB emissions factors.
- Fuels References: See blendstock pages for ethanol and BOB for a full description of fuels references. Those for ethanol include (EIA, 2023), (Elgowainy et al., 2016), (Dutta et al., 2011), (Wang et al., 2023), (Lee et al., 2021), (Humbird et al., 2011), (Tao et al., 2014), and (Dunn et al., 2013). Those for BOB include (EIA, 2024b), (EIA, 2023), and (Wang et al., 2023).
See Selected Fuel Pathways to see the lowest CO2e emissions fuel, lowest cost, and baseline pathways in the Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) for Natural Gas Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles and Gasoline Hybrid Electric Vehicles.
The data downloads include additional details of assumptions and calculations for each metric.
Definitions
For detailed definitions, see:
References
The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.