Policy Representation in the ATB

Many provisions and tax credits, including those in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), affect the cost of clean energy and transportation. Most current data and modeling in the ATB do not explicitly include the provisions in the IRA (or other policy).  

For fuels, the exception is electricity rates and grid mixes based on the 2025 Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2025); the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Standard Scenarios include key IRA provisions and other relevant power sector polices. 

For vehicles, the exception is the Conservative trajectory, based on relative annual changes in the 2025 Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2025). This includes key transportation IRA and other policy provisions, including state alternative vehicle tax credits, the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards (CAFE), and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fuel consumption standard for heavy-duty vehicles (EIA, 2025). In the ATB Moderate and Advanced trajectories, based on Islam et al. (Islam et al., 2023), vehicle fuel economy and emissions standards (e.g., CAFE and GHG emissions regulations for light- and medium-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA]) are not explicitly accounted for. However, the Moderate and Advanced vehicle scenarios are likely to meet the requirements of the light- and medium-duty vehicle standards beginning in Model Year 2027 along with the Phase 3 heavy-duty standards from EPA.

References

The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.