About the 2025 Transportation ATB

Purpose

With the increasing reliance of energy analysis on data and modeling tools, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) products to:

Document transparent, normalized technology cost and performance assumptions using published sources
Document potential pathways for impacts of research and development (R&D) on renewable energy technologies
Enable consistency in technology assumptions across analysis projects
Facilitate the tracking and sourcing of input assumptions
Reduce the lead time required when conducting scenario analysis of 5- to 25-year futures.

The Transportation ATB provides a set of assumptions that can be used in analyses and projections across the transportation sector. Projections are presented through the year 2050. Technologies that are the focus of U.S. Department of Energy research, development, deployment, and demonstration are emphasized, along with their predominant market counterparts.

Use of the assumptions in the Transportation ATB can increase consistency, facilitate the tracking and sourcing of input assumptions, and reduce the lead time in conducting scenario analysis.

These assumptions are based on previously published resources and are reviewed periodically. Given the rapid pace of technology improvement and market advancement, the assumptions made here might not reflect the most recent trends. As data become available, ATB data are updated to reflect updated cost and performance trajectories.

Transportation ATB Team

The Transportation ATB is led by NREL, assembled by a team of analysts from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) national laboratories, and sponsored by DOE.

The 2025 Transportation ATB team members include the following:

Biofuels: Arpit Bhatt, NREL
Biofuels and R&D Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) analysis: Hao Cai, Argonne National Laboratory
Hydrogen: Jamie Kee and Michael Penev, NREL
Hydrogen and R&D GREET analysis: Hao Cai, Argonne National Laboratory
Vehicles: Paige Jadun and Jiayun Sun, NREL; Michel Alhajjar and Paul Phillips, Argonne National Laboratory
Aviation: Jiayun Sun, NREL
Project coordination: Jiayun Sun and Laura Vimmerstedt, NREL
Assumptions and documentation development: Matthew Heine, Jiayun Sun, and Dana Stright, NREL
Website production: Mike Bannister, Jeremy Jenkins, and Jim Vezina, NREL
Editing: Emily Horvath, NREL
Technical review: Alicia Birky, Mark Chung, Ryan Davis, Jeff Gonder, Catherine Ledna, Dan Mazzone, Ling Tao, and Arthur Yip, NREL
DOE project leads: Raphael Isaac, Natalie Lefton, Laura Roberson, and Michael Shell.

The ATB is one of many data products the NREL energy analysis staff provides. The 2025 Transportation ATB uses data from Argonne National Laboratory, which develops many other analytic work products through its Transportation and Power Systems division.

Transportation ATB Technical Review Committee

A technical review committee reviews the ATB during each update. The committee:

Reviews objectives and approach and offers suggestions, where appropriate, to strengthen the annual process and resolve technical issues that arise
Provides suggestions to improve the accuracy, clarity, and understanding of the work
Helps ensure the study:
- Builds on prior peer-reviewed, related technical work
- Is informed by data sources and findings from recent and current related research
Reviews and comments on draft results to ensure findings are based on facts and accurate engineering and science.

The ATB technical review committee comprises leading experts from industry, consulting, government, academia, and nonprofits with specialties in energy analysis and transportation technology research, development, and deployment. We gratefully acknowledge their contributions.

Transportation ATB Sponsor

The ATB—which is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Strategic Analysis Team, Bioenergy Technologies Office, Vehicle Technologies Office, and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office—leverages and continues significant activity funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy for individual technologies and market segments.

Recommended Citation

We recommend you cite the 2025 Transportation ATB as NREL (2025) and reference it as:

NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory). 2025. "2025 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline." Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://atb.nrel.gov.