Changes in 2025

The 2025 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides a transparent set of technology cost and performance data for transportation sector analysis. The update of the 2024 ATB to the 2025 ATB includes general updates to all technologies as well as technology-specific updates—both of which are described on this page. Use the following charts to explore the changes from 2024 to 2025.

NEW CHART

OLD CHART:

Notes:

• In the 2025 update, light-duty vehicles are categorized as either base or premium; in comparison, the 2024 version included only base vehicles.

Key Updates

• Additional biofuels pathways are included, and some pathways now have updated references that provide a single source for both cost and emissions estimates.
• Light-duty vehicles include both base and premium categories instead of just the base category.
• Moderate and advanced vehicle trajectories are not updated, and still cite the same source (Islam et al., 2023) in the 2025 ATB update as in 2024.
• Hydrogen fuel production pathways are updated on the Hydrogen page, and now include only steam methane reforming.
• 🗨Literature comparison pages are not updated, and may be found in the archived 2024 ATB. 

General Updates to All Technologies

• Some of the periodically updated sources are updated, including the Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2025) and Monthly Energy Review OLD REFERENCE (EIA, 2024) for various energy data; the Standard Scenarios for Electricity scenarios (Gagnon et al., 2024); and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics for aviation sector data (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2025a), (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2025b), (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2025c). Periodically updated sources whose updates were not published in time for this update include Argonne's research and development (R&D) Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technology (GREET) model for emissions (Wang et al., 2023) and Autonomie modeling results for moderate and advanced vehicle scenarios (Islam et al., 2023). 
• The policy assumptions include key Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) effects in the power sector, but other IRA effects (e.g., vehicle tax credits) are not explicitly included, nor are vehicle corporate average fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions regulations as set forth in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Final Rule: Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles, Final Rule: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles – Phase 3, and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's Final Rule: CAFE Standards for MYs 2027-2031 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks and Fuel Efficiency Standards for MYs 2030-2035 Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks and Vans. See the policy definition.
• The Levelized Cost of Driving (LCOD) assumptions are updated to reflect recent trends in vehicle life and VMT. See the Levelized Cost of Driving assumptions for details. 
• The Base Year is updated from 2022 to 2024 using new market data or analysis where applicable.
• The dollar year is updated from 2022 to 2024. Unless otherwise noted, all monetary values are converted from their source dollar year to 2024 dollars by applying the Federal Reserve Economic Data's Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator (FRED and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2025).

Vehicles Updates

• The new Conservative Trajectory is developed to replace the Constant Trajectory where data are available. The Constant Trajectory has been discontinued for most vehicle types. (Exceptions are refuse and vocational vehicles.)
• Vehicle types are expanded to include most of the vehicles analyzed in Autonomie (Islam et al., 2023).
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Fuels Updates

• Losses associated with vehicle charging are specified.
• Additional biomass-to-biofuels pathways cover those used in biofuels industry modeling in the Bioenergy Scenario Model.
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References

The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.