Plug-In Hybrid MDHD

Explore key cost and performance metrics for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, including modeled vehicle price, fuel economy, levelized cost of driving, and emissions. Caveats for comparing powertrains are listed on the MDHD Comparison page.

Vehicle Metrics: Fuel Economy and Modeled Vehicle Price

The chart below shows fuel economy and modeled vehicle price, metrics associated with the vehicle. Fuel economy represents how efficiently a vehicle converts fuel during operation. Modeled vehicle price represents an estimated cost to the consumer to purchase a new vehicle, based on modeling that includes manufacturing costs and profit.

The source of the 2022 Transportation ATB modeled vehicle price and fuel economy is the Argonne National Laboratory report (Islam et al., 2022); the original data are available here. These data are developed using ANL's Autonomie simulation tool.

Select the data to display using the menus above the chart. Use the Metric filter to switch between fuel economy and modeled vehicle cost data. Select the vehicle class, powertrain, and other powertrain details using the additional filters.

Vehicle and Fuel Metrics: Levelized Cost of Driving and CO2e Emissions

The chart below shows levelized cost of driving and CO₂e emissions, in addition to the associated fuel data. Levelized cost of driving is a metric that combines modeled vehicle price, fuel economy, fuel cost, and other assumptions for the selected fuel. CO₂e emissions represents the emissions for the fuel well-to-wheels portion of the life cycle for the selected fuel. Emissions associated with vehicle life cycles are not included here.  

The chart shows LCOD bands that include uncertainty and variation in MDHD EV charging situations. These LCOD bands incorporate scenarios of different utilization, electric demand charges, equipment costs, charging powers/fueling rates, and business models. In each calculated LCOD for each fuel pathway, ATB combines these variations on delivery costs with its estimate of bulk energy price (electricity and hydrogen at production gate), for consistency.

These calculations use data from Argonne National Laboratory, which develops and applies the Autonomie simulation tool and GREET model (Wang et al., 2022). Links to data from the Argonne National Laboratory report (Islam et al., 2022) on modeled vehicle price and fuel economy are available here.   

Select the data to display using the buttons and menus to the above the chart. Use the Metric filter to switch between levelized cost of driving and CO₂e emissions data. Select the pathway, scenario, vehicle class and powertrain details using the additional filters. Clicking the black arrows on the top right of the figure shows additional details of the selected fuel pathways. The underlying source for a data point in the chart can be seen by placing your mouse cursor over that data point. The data sources are also cited—with hyperlinked linked references—in the Key Assumptions section below.

Notes:

• The levelized cost of driving in the ATB includes vehicle, fuel, and maintenance costs. See the levelized cost of driving definition for details of what is included in and excluded from LCOD in the ATB.
• Changes over time are attributable only to projected vehicle cost and performance; the fuel cost and emissions are constant over time.
• The Fuel Pathway filter displays the selected fuel pathways for the Baseline Fuel, Lowest Cost Fuel, and Lowest CO2e Emissions Fuel. The full set of fuel pathways is available in the data download.

Key Assumptions

The data and estimates presented here are based on the following key assumptions:

• Cost and Fuel Economy Trajectories: The cost and fuel economy trajectories are based on the analysis-year Autonomie modeling results from Islam et al. (Islam et al., 2022). The ATB Mid trajectory corresponds to the Base performance, Low technology progress case. The ATB Advanced trajectory corresponds to the Base performance, High technology progress case. The ATB Constant trajectory is set to the 2022 values in the Low technology progress, high-cost case and held constant through 2050.
• High Production Volume: The estimates from Islam et al. (Islam et al., 2022), and those shown here, represent costs and technology performance at high production volume. 
• At-Scale Manufacturing Costs: While MDHD PHEVs and BEVs are not currently produced at high volume, we assume learning and scale from light-duty vehicle manufacturing of electric drivetrain components, which are produced at high volume, will lead to at-scale manufacturing costs for MDHD PHEVs and BEVs. However, we note that differences in performance, durability, and warranty requirements may maintain a price premium in MDHD EV component costs compared to light-duty vehicle component costs. 
• Vehicle Variations: The Transportation ATB presents estimates for representative vehicles in medium- and heavy-duty classes; we do not account for variations in make, model, and trim or for pricing incentives or geographic heterogeneity that influence prices in the market. As a result, representative values shown here may differ from specific models available on the market.
• Technology Advances: Technology advances include changes that may reduce costs or may increase costs while improving performance, which implies costs do not always decline between less- and more-advanced scenarios.
• Fuel Economy Improvements: The assumptions about fuel economy improvements reflect adoption of lightweighting and engine efficiency technologies consistently across vehicle powertrains for a given trajectory in Islam et al. (Islam et al., 2022). However, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles use engine technologies and battery technologies that are different from those of single-fueled vehicles, so the impact of lightweighting and other technology advancements on fuel economy and modeled vehicle price may occur at different rates.
• Efficiency Losses: The charge-depleting fuel economy estimates in Islam et al. (Islam et al., 2022) are adjusted to account for battery charging efficiency losses, which are not accounted for in the Autonomie model. The Transportation ATB assumes 15% efficiency losses in 2022, which decreases exponentially to 12% in 2050, based on estimates reported in Elgowainy et al. (Elgowainy et al., 2016).
• Baseline Fuel: The baseline fuel pathways used for this powertrain in the levelized cost of driving and emissions estimates are plug-in electric vehicle charging electricity with the national grid mix and conventional E10 gasoline with starch ethanol. Additional selected fuel pathways can be displayed by choosing Lowest Cost or Lowest Emissions under Fuel Pathway filter. Additional information about these and other fuels can be found on the Gasoline and Ethanol and Electricity pages.
• Frozen Fuel Price Level: The fuel price and emissions of the selected fuel pathways (e.g., Baseline, Lowest Cost, and Lowest Emissions) are associated with a single year. Because we do not provide a time-series trajectory, here we show fuel price at a frozen level for all years so we can offer a range of fuel price values. In the levelized cost of driving and emissions charts, this approach clearly distinguishes effects of fuels from those of vehicle technologies, because fuels remain constant while vehicle technologies change over time.
• Fuels References: See fuels and blendstock pages, especially for diesel bio-based blendstock and electricity, for a full description of the fuels references. Those for diesel include (EIA, 2020), (EIA, 2021), (DOE, 2020), (Tao et al., 2017), (Tan et al., 2021), (Wang et al., 2022), (Xie et al., 2011), and (Xu et al., 2022). Those for electricity include (EIA, 2022), (EIA, 2021), (EIA, 2018), and (Wang et al., 2022).
• Utility Factor-Weighted Average: The Fuel economy shown here is the utility-factor-weighted average, which includes the average electricity and liquid fuel consumption across charge-depleting and charge-sustaining modes. The utility factor assumed for MDHD PHEVs are described on the Fuel economy page. 
• Fuel Economy on Substitutable Fuels: The Transportation ATB assumes the charge-sustaining fuel economy remains constant when operating on substitutable fuels. In reality, fuel composition may affect engine performance.

The data downloads include additional details of assumptions and calculations for each metric.

Definitions

For detailed definitions, see:

Emissions

Fuel economy

Levelized cost of driving

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

Scenarios

Modeled Vehicle Price

Vehicle Range

References

The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.