ATB Approach and Methodology, 2022
The Electricity ATB presents the cost and performance of typical electricity generation plants in the United States. It represents renewable electricity generation plants by either (1) reflecting the entire geographic range of resource with a few points averaging similar characteristics or (2) providing examples to demonstrate a range associated with resource potential. Foundational to this averaging approach, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) uses high-resolution, location-specific resource data to represent site-specific capital investment and estimated annual energy production for all potential renewable energy plants in the United States.
For each renewable technology, the ATB data and website include:
- Base Year estimates for parameters that include primary cost and performance metrics:
- Three scenarios for future technology innovation, and their associated parameter values
- Descriptions of the resource, cost and performance estimation methodology, and data sources as well as a comparison with published data.
For fossil (natural gas and coal) generation plants, the ATB data and website include:
- Base Year estimates for parameters that include primary cost and performance metrics:
- Capital expenditures (total overnight costs)
- Fixed and variable operating expenditures
- Operating range (expected availability, minimum emissions compliant load)
- Full load design emissions rates for carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, and mercury
- Three scenarios for future technology innovation, and their associated parameter values
- Descriptions of the resource, cost and performance estimation methodology, and data sources.
For nuclear generation plants, the ATB:
- Relies on U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) representation of base year plant cost estimates and for plant cost projections through 2050 from AEO2022 (EIA, 2022)
- Relies on EIA scenarios for fuel price projections through 2050 from AEO2022 (EIA, 2022); future work may include national laboratory projections for these technologies.
For biopower plants, the ATB:
- Relies on EIA representation of future plant cost estimates through 2050 from AEO2022 (EIA, 2022)
- Represents the average biopower feedstock price based on the U.S. Billion Ton Update study (DOE, 2011) through 2030
- Holds the biopower feedstock price at 2030 levels through 2050.
Base Year (2020) Costs in the ATB
Base year (2020) costs in the ATB are from the following sources:
| Technology | Source |
|---|---|
| Land-based wind power plants | Capital expenditures (CAPEX) associated with wind plants installed in the interior of the country are used to characterize CAPEX for hypothetical wind plants with average annual wind speeds that correspond with the median conditions for recently installed wind facilities. The operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of $43/kW-yr is estimated in the 2020 Cost of Wind Energy Review (Stehly and Duffy, 2022); no variation of fixed operation and maintenance expenses with wind speed class is assumed. Capacity factors align with performance in Wind Speed Classes 2–7, where most installations are located. |
| Offshore wind power plants | Base year estimates are derived from a combination of bottom-up techno-economic cost modeling (Beiter et al., 2016) and experiential learning effects with economies of size and scale from higher turbine and plant ratings (Beiter et al., 2020). |
| Distributed wind power plants | Base year costs and performances estimates are data obtained from NREL’s 2020 Cost of Wind Energy study (Stehly and Duffy, 2022). |
| Utility, commercial, and residential photovoltaic (PV) plants | CAPEX for 2020 are based on bottom-up cost modeling and market data from (Feldman et al., 2021). O&M costs are based on modeled pricing for PV systems (Feldman et al., 2021). |
| Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants | Based on recent assessment of the industry in 2022 and bottom-up CSP cost analysis for heliostat components (Kurup et al., 2022) that are available in Version 2021.12.02 of the System Advisor Model (SAM). |
| Geothermal plants | Bottom-up cost modeling using Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) and inputs from the GeoVision Business-as-Usual scenario (DOE, 2019), (Augustine et al., 2019). |
| Hydropower plants | Non-powered dam (NPD) data are based on the bottom-up new 2020 cost analysis (Oladosu, G. et al., 2021). New stream-reach development (NSD) data are retained from previous years and are based on Hydropower Vision study (DOE, 2016), with bottom-up cost modeling from the Hydropower Baseline Cost Modeling report (O'Connor et al., 2015). |
| Utility-scale PV-plus-battery | CAPEX assumptions for utility-scale PV-plus-battery are based on new bottom-up cost modeling and market data from (Ramasamy et al., 2021) and reflect a 100-MWAC utility-scale PV-plus-battery system comprising 130-MWDC one-axis tracking PV, coupled with 71.5-MWDC battery storage with 4-hour duration. O&M costs are based on modeled pricing and include discounted battery replacement costs after 10 and 20 years of operations. When accounting for state-of-charge and roundtrip efficiency constraints, the usable stored energy for the battery component is roughly half of the inverter capacity, which is consistent with common relative battery sizing in recent and proposed utility-scale PV-plus-battery projects (Bolinger et al., 2021). Capacity factors and tax credits assume 75% of the energy used to charge the battery component is derived from the coupled PV (on an annual basis). |
| Utility-scale, commercial, and residential battery storage | 2021 costs for utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) are based on a bottom-up cost model using the data and methodology for utility-scale BESS in (Ramasamy et al., 2021). |
| Pumped storage hydropower plants (PSH) | Resource characterizations and capital costs are from (Rosenlieb et al., 2022), which describes a national closed-loop PSH resource assessment. O&M costs are from (Mongird et al., 2020). |
| Natural gas and coal | Estimates of performance and costs for currently available fossil-fueled electricity generating technologies are representative of current commercial offerings and/or projects that began commercial service within the past ten years (James III et al., 2019). CCS estimates based on (Schmitt et al., 2022). |
| Nuclear and biopower plants | These are Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2022) reported costs. |
Future Cost Projections for Renewables
The ATB future projections are based primarily on expert analysis, bottom-up modeling, and literature on specific technology innovations, which are described in detail for each technology. The categories of innovations for each technology are shown in the following table. The innovations listed in these tables on each technology page, and summarized here, represent innovations that are assumed to drive most of the cost reductions in the ATB scenarios. These lists do not include all potential innovations, and they only include innovations that directly impact cost and performance.
| Land-Based Wind | rotor, nacelle assembly tower science-based modeling |
| Offshore Wind | turbine size supply chain learning size-agnostic technology innovations |
| Distributed Wind | rotor, nacelle assembly tower specific power reduction tower erection innovations material efficient turbine foundations standardized zoning, permitting, interconnection, and incentives higher volume of turbine manufacturing leading to lower overhead charged per turbine |
| Solar Photovoltaics | module efficiency inverter power electronics installation efficiencies energy yield gain |
| Concentrating Solar Power | power block receiver thermal storage solar field |
| Geothermal | drilling advancements enhanced geothermal system (EGS) development reduced permitting time |
| Hydropower | learning by doing modularity new materials automation/digitalization new turbines, eco-friendly turbines |
| Utility-Scale PV-Plus-Battery | See Solar Photovoltaics and Battery Storage rows. |
| Battery Storage | significant market demand (across electricity, electric vehicle, and consumer electronics sectors) improvements in chemistry supply chain development |
| Pumped Storage Hydropower | modularity new materials innovative closed-loop concepts eco-friendly pumps and turbines |
| Natural Gas and Coal | second generation technologies available by 2025 transformational technologies become available by 2030 post-combustion carbon capture technologies advanced natural gas fuel cell systems advanced ultra-supercritical pulverized coal plants |
References
The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.