Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Assumptions

The fuel cell and hydrogen storage cost assumptions used in the Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) modeled vehicle price trajectories are shown next. The fuel cell costs and hydrogen storage vessel costs shown include an assumption of low-volume manufacturing today that gradually increases to high production volume manufacturing of these devices. Assumptions about component costs and production volume are detailed next for light-duty and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Adjusted inputs for fuel cells and hydrogen storage are input into the Autonomie model, whereas other vehicle component assumptions (e.g., lightweighting and aerodynamic improvements over time) are consistent with Islam et al. (Islam et al., 2023).

Beyond the volume adjustments documented next, the ATB Mid trajectory corresponds to the Base performance, Low technology progress case. The ATB Advanced trajectory corresponds to the Base performance, High technology progress case. The final fuel cell and hydrogen storage costs for a vehicle depend on the size of the fuel cell stack and storage tank, which vary depending on the technology progress of the other components and vehicle size as well as the resulting fuel economy.

Assumptions for Fuel Cell Vehicle Production Volumes

• Assumed manufacturing volume in the ATB Base Year estimates is based on current manufacturing volume of fuel cell electric vehicles today. Component costs for light-duty and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are assumed to scale proportionally, and projected volumes are based on estimates of future medium- and heavy-duty vehicle deployment, which are assumed to drive market growth. The ATB Advanced trajectory assumes incremental projected manufacturing growth consistent with the estimated medium- and heavy-duty vehicle adoption in Central case from Ledna et al. (Ledna et al., 2024). The ATB Mid trajectory assumes incremental volumes consistent with the Conservative Hydrogen Price case from Ledna et al. (Ledna et al., 2024). Component costs for hydrogen storage and fuel cells are scaled according to the assumed manufacturing volumes and component cost multipliers in the following tables. Production cost multipliers are aligned with the methodology described in (James et al., 2023). All other vehicle component assumptions (e.g., lightweighting and aerodynamic improvements over time) are consistent with Islam et al. (Islam et al., 2023). Modeled vehicle prices in the ATB Conservative trajectory for light-duty vehicles are based on the Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2023), with no adjustments based on manufacturing volume. For medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, conservative trajectory production volumes are based on the Reference case from the Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2023).

Light-Duty Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Production Volume and Low-Volume Production Component Cost Multipliers

Medium- and Heavy-Duty Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Production Volume and Low-Volume Production Component Cost Multipliers

References

The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.