Changes in 2024

The 2024 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides a transparent set of technology cost and performance data for transportation sector analysis. The update of the 2022 ATB to the 2024 ATB includes general updates to all technologies as well as technology-specific updates—both of which are described on this page. Use the following charts to explore the changes from 2022 to 2024.  

Notes:

• In the 2022 ATB, there were 3 different vehicle detail options for light duty FCEVs as opposed to just one in 2024. For this comparison, the "Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (300-mile range)" vehicle from 2022 was selected to compare against the "Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle" of 2024.

Key Updates

• Vehicles scenarios include a Conservative Trajectory instead of a Constant Trajectory. The Constant Trajectory has been discontinued for most vehicle types. (Exceptions are refuse and vocational vehicles.)
• Literature comparison pages that show historical and projected vehicle cost and fuel economy from the literature are added to Light-Duty Vehicles and Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles sections.
• Additional biofuels pathways are included.
• Recharging and hydrogen refueling costs are updated.

General Updates to All Technologies

• Periodically updated sources are updated, including the Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2023) and Monthly Energy Review (EIA, 2024) for various energy data; Argonne's research and development (R&D) Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technology (GREET) model for emissions (Wang et al., 2023) and Autonomie modeling results for moderate and advanced vehicle scenarios (Islam et al., 2023); the Standard Scenarios for Electricity scenarios (Gagnon et al., 2024); and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics for aviation sector data (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2024a) (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2024b).  
• The policy assumptions include key Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) effects in the power sector, but other IRA effects (e.g., vehicle tax credits) are not explicitly included, nor are vehicle corporate average fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions regulations as set forth in the EPA's Final Rule: Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles, Final Rule: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles – Phase 3, and NHTSA's Final Rule: CAFE Standards for MYs 2027-2031 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks and Fuel Efficiency Standards for MYs 2030-2035 Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks and Vans. See the policy definition.
• The Levelized Cost of Driving (LCOD) assumptions are updated to reflect recent trends in vehicle life and VMT. See the Levelized Cost of Driving assumption for details. 
• The Base Year is updated from 2020 to 2022 using new market data or analysis where applicable.
• The dollar year is updated from 2020 to 2022. All monetary values are converted from their source dollar year to 2022 dollars by applying the Federal Reserve Economic Data's Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator (GDPDEF) (FRED and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2024).
• New literature reviews are reported for historical and projected values.

Vehicles Updates

• The new Conservative Trajectory is developed to replace the Constant Trajectory where data is available. The Constant Trajectory has been discontinued for most vehicle types. (Exceptions are refuse and vocational vehicles.)
• Base Year and projections are compared with literature in new "Literature Context" sections.
• Vehicle types are expanded to include most of the vehicles analyzed in Autonomie (Islam et al., 2023).
• Low-volume cost multipliers are updated for fuel-cell electric vehicles.

Fuels Updates

• Losses associated with vehicle charging are specified.
• Additional biomass-to-biofuels pathways cover those used in biofuels industry modeling in the Bioenergy Scenario Model.
• Additional metrics for biofuels are reported to reflect the underlying technology cost of the pathways.
• The source of levelized cost of charging infrastructure has been updated to modeled EVI-FAST (NREL, 2023) results for both light-duty vehicle (LDV) charging infrastructure and medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) charging infrastructure (changes shown in table below).

References

The following references are specific to this page; for all references in this ATB, see References.