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Commercial PV

ATB data for commercial solar photovoltaics (PV) are shown above. The Base Year estimates rely on modeled CAPEX and O&M estimates benchmarked with industry and historical data. Capacity factor is estimated based on hours of sunlight at latitude for five representative locations in the United States. The 2020 ATB presents capacity factor estimates that encompass a range associated with advanced, moderate, and conservative technology innovation scenarios across the United States. Future year projections are derived from bottom-up benchmarking of PV CAPEX and bottom-up engineering analysis of O&M costs.

The three scenarios for technology innovation are:

  • Conservative Technology Innovation Scenario (Conservative Scenario): lower levels of R&D investment with minimal technology advancement and current global module pricing
  • Moderate Technology Innovation Scenario (Moderate Scenario): R&D investment continuing at similar levels as today, with no substantial innovations or new technologies introduced to the market
  • Advanced Technology Innovation Scenario (Advanced Scenario): an increase in R&D spending that generates substantial innovation, allowing historical rates of development to continue.

Developed with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.