ATB projections between the Base Year and 2032 (COD) were derived from an expert elicitation conducted by BVG Associates ((Valpy et al. 2017), (Hundleby et al. 2017)). The expert elicitation assesses the impact of more than 50 technology innovations on various cost components of European offshore wind farms up to 2032 (COD). The cost impact from technology innovations was assessed by soliciting industry experts about the maximum cost impact from a technology innovation in combination with an assessment of an innovation's commercial readiness and market share in a given year.
For the ATB, three different technology cost scenarios were adapted from the expert survey results for scenario modeling as bounding levels:
Expert survey estimates from BVG Associates were normalized to the ATB Base Year starting point and applied to overnight capital costs (OCC), FOM, and annual energy production in 2022 (COD), 2027 (COD), and 2032 (COD). These serve as the ATB Mid projection between 2017-2032 (COD). The ATB Mid scenario is intended to represent a cluster of technology innovations that change the manufacturing, installation, operation, and performance of a wind farm consistent with historical cost reduction rates. The ATB Low scenario is intended to represent a cluster of technology innovations that fundamentally change the manufacturing, installation, operation and performance of a wind farm resulting in considerably higher cost reductions than the ATB Mid scenario. The ATB Low scenario is represented by cost reductions that are twice the rate achieved in the ATB Mid scenario. The percentage reduction in LCOE was applied equally across all TRGs. The cost reductions for ATB Mid and ATB Low scenarios between 2032 and 2050 were extrapolated (i.e., exponentially fit) based on the estimated trend between 2017 and 2032 (COD).
Hundleby, G., Freeman, K., Logan, A., & Frost, C. (2017). Floating Offshore: 55 Technology Innovations that will have greater impact on reducing the cost of electricity from European floating offshore wind farms. Retrieved from KiC InnoEnergy and BVG Associates website.
Valpy, B., Hundleby, G., Freeman, K., Roberts, A., & Logan, A. (2017). Future renewable energy costs: Offshore wind. Retrieved from KiC InnoEnergy and BVG Associates website: http://www.innoenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/InnoEnergy-Offshore-Wind-anticipated-innovations-impact-2017_A4.pdf