For reference, we compare ATB scenarios with other sources: literature sources and the Annual Energy Outlook (EIA).
This section compiles capital expenditure projections from the literature in comparison to ATB scenarios for each technology. For discussion of the methods used to relate ATB scenarios to literature projections, please refer to individual technology sections.
Projections of the cost of wind energy from the literature provide context for the ATB Constant, Mid, and Low technology cost projections. The ATB Mid cost projection, which corresponds to the Median scenario from the expert survey, results in LCOE reductions that are slightly lower than other median scenarios in the literature (ARUP (2011); BNEF (2015); E3 (2014); EIA (2014); EPA (2015); GWEC (2014); IEA (2015c); IRENA (2016a); Teske et al. (2015)). The ATB Low cost projection, which corresponds to the NREL bottom-up cost analysis, is similar to the lower bound of the sample of literature projections (BNEF (2016); IEA (2015c); MAKE (2015)).
To jump to the 2018 ATB Land-Based Wind section, click here.
A broad sample of cost of offshore wind energy projections provides context for the ATB Constant, Mid, and Low technology cost projections. Based on a TRG4 resource classification, the ATB Mid cost projection, which corresponds to the median scenario from the Wiser et al. (2016) expert survey, results in LCOE reductions that are fairly aligned with the median scenarios of external studies (BNEF (2017c); IRENA (2016b); Catapult (2016); Lazard (2017)). EIA (2017b) estimates higher cost levels in the period 2022-2041, while BNEF (2018) estimates lower cost levels for the U.S by the mid-2020s. These external studies were reviewed to validate the baseline estimates and projections derived for the ATB. Generally, while some published studies as well as recent tender awards for European projects to be installed by the mid-2020s suggest significant near-term cost reduction (see e.g., Musial et al. (2017)), it is likely that the United States will lag due to a different development stage of the U.S. supply chain and port infrastructure.
To jump to the 2018 ATB Offshore Wind section, click here.
Projections of future utility-scale PV plant CAPEX are based on 15 system price projections from 9 separate institutions. Projections include short-term U.S. price forecasts (BNEF (2017a); GTM Research (2016); EIA 2017; IEA (2016); IHS (2017)) made in the past year and long-term global and U.S. price forecasts (ABB (2017); BNEF (2017b); Carlsson et al. (2014); Fraunhofer ISE (2015); Teske et al. (2015)) made in the past four years. The short-term forecasts were primarily provided by market analysis firms with expertise in the PV industry, through a subscription service with NREL. The long-term forecasts primarily represent the collection of publicly available, unique forecasts with either a long-term perspective of solar trends or through capacity expansion models with assumed learning by doing.
To jump to the 2018 ATB Utility-Scale PV section, click here.
Projections of future commercial PV installation CAPEX are based on 12 system price projections from 6 separate institutions. Projections included short-term U.S. price forecasts made in the past six months and long-term global and U.S. price forecasts made in the past primarily provided by market analysis firms with expertise in the PV industry, through a subscription service with NREL. The long-term forecasts primarily represent the collection of publicly available, unique forecasts with either a long-term perspective of solar trends or through capacity expansion models with assumed learning by doing.
To jump to the 2018 ATB Land-Based Wind section, click here.
Projections of future residential PV installation CAPEX are based on 11 system price projections from seven separate institutions. Projections include short-term U.S. price forecasts made in the past year and long-term global and U.S. price forecasts made in the past four years. The short-term forecasts were primarily provided by market analysis firms with expertise in the PV industry, through a subscription service with NREL. The long-term forecasts primarily represent the collection of publicly available, unique forecasts with either a long-term perspective of solar trends or through capacity expansion models with assumed learning by doing.
To jump to the 2018 ATB Residential PV section, click here.
A range of literature projections is shown for comparison. When comparing the ATB projections with other projections, note that there are major differences in technology assumptions, radiation conditions, field sizes, storage configurations, and other factors. The Low ATB projection is based on the SunShot Vision Study (DOE (2012); Mehos et al. (2016)). Although this Low projection falls below other projections, it has been vetted with solar industry representatives to position it in the aggressive but plausible range.
To jump to the 2018 ATB Concentrating Solar Power section, click here.
A range of literature projections is shown for comparison. The Mid and Low cost cases use a mix of inputs based on EIA technological learning assumptions, input from a technical team of Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers, and the experience of expert hydropower consultants.
To jump to the 2018 ATB Hydropower section, click here.
The following charts show comparisons of the ATB LCOE in the Market case with the AEO reference case LCOE by technology. For further discussion of LCOE comparisons in different scenarios, please see Project Finance Impact on LCOE.
Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis: Version 11.0. November 2017. New York: Lazard. https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-2017.
The Power to Change: Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025. June 2016. Paris: International Renewable Energy Agency. http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Power_to_Change_2016.pdf.
Carlsson, J., M. del Mar Perez Fortes, G. de Marco, J. Giuntoli, M. Jakubcionis, A. JÃƒÂ¤ger-Waldau, R. Lacal-Arantegui, S. Lazarou, D. Magagna, C. Moles, B. Sigfusson, A. Spisto, M. Vallei, and E. Weidner. 2014. ETRI 2014: Energy Technology Reference Indicator, Projections for 2010-2050. European Commission: JRC Science and Policy Reports. http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC92496/ldna26950enn.pdf.
DOE (U.S. Department of Energy). 2012. SunShot Vision Study. DOE/GO-102012-3037. February 2012. https://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/47927.pdf.
E3 (Energy and Environmental Economics). 2014. Capital Cost Review of Power Generation Technologies: Recommendations for WECC's 10- and 20-Year Studies. Prepared for the Western Electric Coordinating Council. https://www.wecc.biz/Reliability/2014_TEPPC_Generation_CapCost_Report_E3.pdf.
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). 2014. Annual Energy Outlook 2014 with Projections to 2040. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy. DOE/EIA-0383(2014). April 2014. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf.
Fraunhofer ISE. 2015. Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics: Long-term Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-Scale PV Systems. Prepared for Agora Energiewende. Freiburg, Germany: Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE). 059/01-S-2015/EN. February 2015. https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2014/Kosten-Photovoltaik-2050/AgoraEnergiewende_Current_and_Future_Cost_of_PV_Feb2015_web.pdf.
IHS. 2017. PV Demand Market Tracker. Q4 2017. IHS. December 8, 2017. https://technology.ihs.com/572649/pv-demand-market-tracker-q4-2017.
Labastida, Roberto, and Dexter Gauntlett. 2016. Next-Generation Solar PV High Efficiency Solar PV Modules and Module-Level Power Electronics: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts. Chicago: Navigant Consulting. 3Q 2016.
Mehos, Mark, Craig Turchi, Jennie Jorgenson, Paul Denholm, Clifford Ho, and Kenneth Armijo. 2016. On the Path to SunShot: Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5500-65688. May 2016. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65688.pdf.
Musial, W., P. Beiter, P. Schwabe, T. Tian, T. Stehly, P. Spitsen. 2017. 2016 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report. U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. DOE/GO-102017-5031. August 2017. https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2018/08/f35/2016%20Offshore%20Wind%20Technologies%20Market%20Report.pdf
Ove Arup & Partners Ltd. (ARUP). 2011. Review of the Generation Costs and Deployment Potential of Renewable Electricity Technologies in the UK. Department of Energy and Climate REP001, Prepared by Ove Arup & Partners Ltd. London, UK.
Teske, Sven, Steve Sawyer, and Oliver Schäfer, Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, and Tobias Naegler. 2015. Energy [r]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015. Global Wind Energy Council, Solar Power Europe & Greenpeace. September 2015.
Wiser, Ryan, Karen Jenni, Joachim Seel, Erin Baker, Maureen Hand, Eric Lantz, and Aaron Smith. 2016. Forecasting Wind Energy Costs and Cost Drivers: The Views of the World's Leading Experts. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. LBNL-1005717. June 2016. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/forecasting-wind-energy-costs-and.