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Annual Technology Baseline 2017

National Renewable Energy Laboratory


Recommended Citation:
NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory). 2017. 2017 Annual Technology Baseline. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. http://atb.nrel.gov/.


Please consult Guidelines for Using ATB Data:
https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/user-guidance.html

Residential PV Systems

Representative Technology

For the ATB, residential PV systems are modeled for a 5.0-kWDC fixed tilt (25°), roof-mounted system. Flat-plate PV can take advantage of direct and indirect insolation, so PV modules need not directly face and track incident radiation. This gives PV systems a broad geographical application, especially for residential PV systems.

Resource Potential

Solar resources across the United States are mostly good to excellent at about 1,000-2,500 kWh/m2/year. The Southwest is at the top of this range, while only Alaska and part of Washington are at the low end. The range for the contiguous United States is about 1,350-2,500 kWh/m2/year. Nationwide, solar resource levels vary by about a factor of two.

Distributed-scale PV is assumed to be configured as a fixed-axis, roof-mounted system. Compared to utility-scale PV, this reduces both the potential capacity factor and amount of land (roof space) that is available for development. A recent study of rooftop PV technical potential (Gagnon et al. 2016) estimated that as much as 731 GW (926 TWh/yr) of potential exists for small buildings (<5,000 m2) and 386 GW (506 TWh/yr) of potential exists for medium (5,000-25,000 m2) and large buildings (>25,000 m2).

map: mean U.S. solar resource available to PV systems
Map of mean solar resource available to PV systems in the United States

Renewable energy technical potential, as defined by Lopez et al. (2012), represents the achievable energy generation of a particular technology given system performance, topographic limitations, and environmental and land-use constraints. The primary benefit of assessing technical potential is that it establishes an upper-boundary estimate of development potential. It is important to understand that there are multiple types of potential-resource, technical, economic, and market (Lopez et al. 2012; NREL, "Renewable Energy Technical Potential").

Base Year and Future Year Projections Overview

The Base Year estimates rely on modeled CAPEX and O&M estimates benchmarked with industry and historical data. Capacity factor is estimated based on hours of sunlight at latitude for three representative geographic locations in the United States.

Future year projections are derived from analysis of published projections of PV CAPEX and bottom-up engineering analysis of O&M costs. Three different projections were developed for scenario modeling as bounding levels:

  • High cost: no change in CAPEX, O&M, or capacity factor from 2016 to 2050; consistent across all renewable energy technologies in the ATB
  • Mid cost: based on the median of literature projections of future CAPEX; O&M technology pathway analysis
  • Low cost: based on low bound of literature projections of future CAPEX; O&M technology pathway analysis.

CAPital EXpenditures (CAPEX): Historical Trends, Current Estimates, and Future Projections

Capital expenditures (CAPEX) are expenditures required to achieve commercial operation in a given year. These expenditures include the hardware, the balance of system (e.g., site preparation, installation, and electrical infrastructure), and financial costs (e.g., development costs, onsite electrical equipment, and interest during construction) and are detailed in CAPEX Definition. In the ATB, CAPEX reflects typical plants and does not include differences in regional costs associated with labor or materials. The range of CAPEX demonstrates variation with resource in the contiguous United States.

The following figure shows the Base Year estimate and future year projections for CAPEX costs. Three cost reduction scenarios are represented: High, Mid, and Low. Historical data from residential PV installed in the United States are shown for comparison to the ATB Base Year estimates. The estimate for a given year represents CAPEX of a new plant that reaches commercial operation in that year.

chart: CAPEX historical trends, current estimates, and future projections for residential solar in the ATB
Historical data shown in box and whiskers format where a bar represents the median, a box represents the 20th and 80th percentiles, and whiskers represent the minimum and maximum.
Year represents Commercial Online Date for a past or future plant.
CAPEX is shown as a single value because it does not vary with solar resource.

Recent Trends

Reported residential PV installation CAPEX (Barbose and Dargouth 2016) is shown in box-and-whiskers format for comparison to the ATB current CAPEX estimates and future projections. The data in Barbose et al. (2016) represent 85% of all U.S. residential and commercial PV capacity installed through 2015 and 82% of capacity installed in 2015. The weighted-average market report numbers are expected to be higher than the national cost number projected here, as many of the historical installations are in states (e.g., California) where installation costs are higher than the national cost number.

PV pricing and capacities are quoted in kWDC (i.e., module rated capacity) unlike other generation technologies, which are quoted in kWAC. For PV, this would correspond to the combined rated capacity of all inverters. This is done because kWDC is the unit that the majority of the PV industry uses. Although costs are reported in kWDC, the total CAPEX includes the cost of the inverter, which has a capacity measured in kWAC.

CAPEX estimates for 2015 reflect a continued rapid decline in pricing supported by analysis of recent system cost and pricing for projects that became operational in 2015 (Feldman et al. 2016).

Base Year Estimates

For illustration in the ATB, a representative residential-scale PV installation is shown. Although the PV technologies vary, typical installation costs are represented with a single estimate because the CAPEX does not vary with solar resource.

Although the technology market share may shift over time with new developments, the typical installation cost is represented with the projections above.

A system price of $4.03/WDC in 2015 represents the median reported price of a residential-scale PV system installed in 2015 reported in Tracking the Sun IX (Barbose and Dargouth 2016) and adjusted to remove regional cost multipliers based on geographic location of projects installed in 2015. The $2.93/WDC in 2016 is based on bottom-up benchmark analysis reported in U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark Q1 2016 (adjusted for inflation) (Fu et al. 2016). These figures are in line with other estimated system prices reported in Feldman et al. (2016).

The Base Year CAPEX estimates should tend toward the low end of observed cost because no regional impacts are included. These effects are represented in the historical market data.

Future Year Projections

Projections of future residential PV installation CAPEX are based on 11 system price projections from 7 separate institutions with short-term projections made in the past six months and long-term projections made in the last three years. We adjusted the "min," "median," and "max" analyst forecasts in a few different ways. All 2015 pricing is based on the median historically reported residential PV system price reported in Tracking the Sun IX (Barbose and Dargouth 2016). All 2016 pricing is based on the bottom-up benchmark analysis reported in U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark Q1 2016 (adjusted for inflation) (Fu et al. 2016). These figures are in line with other estimated system prices reported in Feldman et al. (2016).

We adjusted the Mid and Low cost projections for 2017–2050 to remove distortions caused by the combination of forecasts with different time horizons and based on internal judgment of price trends. The high projection case is kept constant at the 2016 CAPEX value, assuming no improvements beyond 2016.

A detailed description of the methodology for developing Future Year Projections is found in Projections Methodology.

Technology innovations that could impact future CAPEX costs are summarized in LCOE Projections.

CAPEX Definition

Capital expenditures (CAPEX) are expenditures required to achieve commercial operation in a given year. For residential PV, this is modeled for a host-owned business model only.

For the ATB—and based on EIA (2016a) and the NREL Solar-PV Cost Model (Fu et al. 2016)—the distributed residential solar PV plant envelope is defined to include:

  • Hardware
    • Module supply
    • Power electronics, including inverters
    • Racking
    • Foundation
    • AC and DC wiring materials and installation
  • Balance of system (BOS)
    • Site and/or roof preparation
    • Permitting, inspection, and interconnection costs
    • Project indirect costs, including costs related to engineering, distributable labor and materials, construction management start up and commissioning, and contractor overhead costs, fees, and profit.
  • Financial costs
    • Owner's costs, such as development costs, legal fees, insurance costs.

CAPEX can be determined for a plant in a specific geographic location as follows:

CAPEX = ConFinFactor*(OCC*CapRegMult+GCC).
(See the Financial Definitions tab in the ATB data spreadsheet.)

Regional cost variations are not included in the ATB (CapRegMult = 1). Because distributed PV plants are located directly at the end use, there are no grid connection costs (GCC = 0). In the ATB, the input value is overnight capital cost (OCC) and details to calculate interest during construction (ConFinFactor).

In the ATB, CAPEX represents a typical distributed residential/commercial PV plant and does not vary with resource. Regional cost effects associated with labor rates, material costs, and other regional effects as defined by EIA (2016a) expand the range of CAPEX. Unique land-based spur line costs based on distance and transmission line costs are not estimated. The following figure illustrates the ATB representative plant relative to the range of CAPEX including regional costs across the contiguous United States. The ATB representative plants are associated with a regional multiplier of 1.0.

chart: CAPEX definition for residential solar in the ATB

Standard Scenarios Model Results

ATB CAPEX, O&M, and capacity factor assumptions for the Base Year and future projections through 2050 for High, Mid, and Low projections are used to develop the NREL Standard Scenarios using the ReEDS model. See ATB and Standard Scenarios.

CAPEX in the ATB does not represent regional variants (CapRegMult) associated with labor rates, material costs, etc., but dGen does include 134 regional multipliers (EIA 2016a).

Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Costs

Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs represent the annual expenditures required to operate and maintain a solar PV plant over its technical lifetime of 30 years (the distinction between economic life and technical life is described here), including:

  • Insurance, property taxes, site security, legal and administrative fees, and other fixed costs
  • Present value, annualized large component replacement costs over technical life (e.g., inverters at 15 years)
  • Scheduled and unscheduled maintenance of solar PV plants, transformers, etc. over the technical lifetime of the plant (e.g., general maintenance, including cleaning and vegetation removal)

The following figure shows the Base Year estimate and future year projections for fixed O&M (FOM) costs. Three cost reduction scenarios are represented. The estimate for a given year represents annual average FOM costs expected over the technical lifetime of a new plant that reaches commercial operation in that year.

chart: base year estimate and future year projections for fixed O&M costs for residential PV in the 2017 ATB

Base Year Estimates

FOM is assumed to be $24/kWDC-yr based on Woodhouse et al. (2016). This number is reasonably consistent with the 2013 "empirical O&M costs" reported in Bolinger and Weaver (2014), which indicates O&M costs range from $15/kWAC/yr to $25/kWAC/yr for fixed-tilt PV systems; this range would be lower if reported in $kWDC/yr. A wide range in reported prices exists in the market, and in part, it depends on what maintenance practices exist for a particular system. These cost categories include asset management (including compliance and reporting for incentive payments), different insurance products, site security, cleaning, vegetation removal, and failure of components. Not all these practices are performed for each system; additionally, some factors depend on the quality of the parts and construction. NREL analysts estimate O&M costs can range between $0 and $40/kWDC-yr.

Future Year Projections

Future FOM is assumed to decline to $10/kWDC-yr by 2020 in the Low cost case and by 2025 in the Mid cost case.

There is currently great market variation in what individual companies perform for O&M.

A detailed description of the methodology for developing Future Year Projections is found in Projections Methodology.

Technology innovations that could impact future CAPEX costs are summarized in LCOE Projections.

Capacity Factor: Expected Annual Average Energy Production Over Lifetime

The capacity factor represents the expected annual average energy production divided by the annual energy production, assuming the plant operates at rated capacity for every hour of the year. It is intended to represent a long-term average over the technical lifetime of the plant (the distinction between economic life and technical life is described here). It does not represent interannual variation in energy production. Future year estimates represent the estimated annual average capacity factor over the technical lifetime of a new plant installed in a given year.

PV system capacity is not directly comparable to other technologies’ capacity factors. Other technologies' capacity factors are represented in exclusively AC units (see Solar PV AC-DC Translation). However, because PV pricing in this ATB documentation is represented in $/WDC, PV system capacity is a DC rating. Because each technology uses consistent capacity ratings, the LCOEs are comparable.

The capacity factor is influenced by the hourly solar profile, technology (e.g., thin-film versus crystalline silicon), axis type (e.g., none, one, or two), expected downtime, and inverter losses to transform from DC to AC power. The DC-AC ratio is a design choice that influences the capacity factor. PV plant capacity factor incorporates an assumed degradation rate of 0.5%/year (Jordan and Kurtz 2013) in the annual average calculation.

The following figure shows a range of capacity factors based on variation in the solar resource in the contiguous United States. The range of the Base Year estimates illustrate the effect of locating a residential PV plant in locations with solar irradiance similar to Seattle, Washington; Kansas City, Missouri; or Daggett, California (estimated first-year operation capacity factors of 12.5%, 16.1%, and 20.7% respectively). Future projections for High, Mid, and Low cost scenarios are unchanged from the Base Year. Technology improvements are focused on CAPEX and O&M cost elements.

chart: capacity factor (annual average energy production over plant lifetime) for residentialsolar PV in the ATB
The legend labels refer to the first-year operation capacity factors. The data illustrated modify the first-year capacity factor by including estimated degradation over the economic life of a PV plant.

Base Year Estimates

For illustration in the ATB, a range of capacity factors is associated with the range of solar irradiance for three resource locations in the contiguous United States:

  • Low: Seattle, Washington
  • Mid: Kansas City, Missouri
  • High: Daggett, California.

First-year operation capacity factors as modeled range from 12.5% to 20.7%, though these depend significantly on geography and system configuration (e.g., fixed-tilt versus single-axis tracking).

Over time, PV installation output is reduced due to degradation in module quality. This degradation is accounted in ATB estimates of capacity factor over the 20-year economic life of the plant (the distinction between economic life and technical life is described here). The adjusted average capacity factor values in the ATB are 12%, 15.5%, and 19.9%.

Future Year Projections

Projections of capacity factors for installations installed in future years are unchanged from the current year. Solar PV installations have very little downtime, inverter efficiency is already optimized, and improvements in panel density are expected to result in smaller footprints or lower CAPEX—not necessarily increased capacity factor. That said, there is potential for future increases in capacity factors through technological improvements such as less panel reflectivity, lower degradations rates, and improved performance in low-light conditions.

Standard Scenarios Model Results

ATB CAPEX, O&M, and capacity factor assumptions for the Base Year and future projections through 2050 for High, Mid, and Low projections are used to develop the NREL Standard Scenarios using the ReEDS model. See ATB and Standard Scenarios.

dGen does not endogenously consider curtailment from surplus renewable energy generation, though this is a feature of the linked ReEDS-dGen model (Cole et al. 2016), where balancing area-level marginal curtailments can be applied to DPV generation as determined by scenario constraints.

Plant Cost and Performance Projections Methodology

Currently, CAPEX—not LCOE—is the most common metric for PV cost. Due to differing assumptions in long-term incentives, system location and production characteristics, and cost of capital, LCOE can be confusing and often incomparable between differing estimates. While CAPEX also has many assumptions and interpretations, it involves fewer variables to manage. Therefore, PV projections in the ATB are driven entirely by plant and operational cost improvements.

We created High, Mid, and Low CAPEX cases to explore the range of possible outcomes of future PV cost improvements. The High case represents no CAPEX improvements made beyond today, the Mid case represents current expectations of price reductions in a “business-as-usual” scenario, and the Low case represents current expectations of potential cost reductions given improved R&D funding and more aggressive global deployment targets.

While CAPEX is one of the drivers to lower costs, R&D efforts continue to focus on other areas to lower the cost of energy from residential PV. While these are not incorporated in the ATB, they include: longer system lifetime, improved performance and reliability, and lower cost of capital.

Projections of future residential PV installation CAPEX are based on 11 system price projections from 7 separate institutions. Projections include short-term U.S. price forecasts made in the past six months and long-term global and U.S. price forecasts made in the past three years. The short-term forecasts were primarily provided by market analysis firms with expertise in the PV industry, through a subscription service with NREL. The long-term forecasts primarily represent the collection of publicly available, unique forecasts with either a long-term perspective of solar trends or through capacity expansion models with assumed learning by doing.

In instances in which literature projections did not include all years, a straight-line change in price was assumed between any two projected values. To generate a High, Mid, and Low cost forecast we took the "min," "median," and "max" of the data sets; however, we only included short-term U.S. forecasts until 2030 as they focus on near-term pricing trends within the industry. Starting in 2030, we include long-term global and U.S. forecasts in the data set, as they focus more on long-term trends within the industry. It is also assumed after 2025 U.S. prices will be on par with global averages. Many of the global projections are weighted heavily toward western countries (e.g., European countries, Japan, and the United States), and in the long-term, the United States should follow global trends. The U.S. federal tax credit for solar assets reverts down to 10% for all projects placed in service after 2023, which has the potential to lower upfront financing costs and remove any distortions in reported pricing, compared to other global markets. Additionally, a larger portion of the United States will have a more mature PV market, which should result in a narrower price range. Many institutions used one system price for all countries. Changes in price for the High, Mid, and Low cost forecast between 2020 and 2030 are interpolated on a straight-line basis.

We adjusted the “min,” “median,” and “max” analyst forecasts in a few different ways. All 2015 pricing is based on the median reported residential system price reported in Tracking the Sun IX (Barbose and Dargouth 2016). All 2016 pricing is based on the bottom-up benchmark analysis reported in U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark Q1 2016 (adjusted for inflation) (Fu et al. 2016). These figures are in line with other estimated system prices reported in Feldman et al. (2016).

We adjusted the Mid and Low cost projections for 2017–2050 to remove distortions caused by the combination of forecasts with different time horizons and based on internal judgment of price trends. The High projection case is kept constant at the 2016 CAPEX value, assuming no improvements beyond 2016.

chart: system prices, 2015-2050, for residential solar PV in the ATB chart: system prices, 2015-2050, for residential  solar PV in the ATB
All prices quoted in euros are converted to USD (1€ = $1.25).
All prices quoted in WAC are converted to WDC (1 WAC=1.2 WDC).

Future FOM is assumed to decline to $10/kWDC-yr by 2020 in the Low case and by 2025 in the Mid case through improvements in system operation and more durable, better performing capital equipment, as per Woodhouse et al. 2016.

Capacity factors are assumed to not increase over time. All PV system efficiency improvements are assumed to result in capital cost reductions rather than capacity factor improvements.

Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Projections

Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is a simple metric that combines the primary technology cost and performance parameters, CAPEX, O&M, and capacity factor. It is included in the ATB for illustrative purposes. The focus of the ATB is to define the primary cost and performance parameters for use in electric sector modeling or other analysis where more sophisticated comparisons among technologies are made. LCOE captures the energy component of electric system planning and operation, but the electric system also requires capacity and flexibility services to operate reliably. Electricity generation technologies have different capabilities to provide such services. For example, wind and PV are primarily energy service providers, while the other electricity generation technologies provide capacity and flexibility services in addition to energy. These capacity and flexibility services are difficult to value and depend strongly on the system in which a new generation plant is introduced. These services are represented in electric sector models such as the ReEDS model and corresponding analysis results such as the Standard Scenarios.

The following three figures illustrate the combined impact of CAPEX, O&M, and capacity factor projections across the range of resources present in the contiguous United States. The Current Market Conditions LCOE demonstrates the range of LCOE based on macroeconomic conditions similar to the present. The Historical Market Conditions LCOE presents the range of LCOE based on macroeconomic conditions consistent with prior ATB editions and Standard Scenarios model results. The Normalized LCOE (all LCOE estimates are normalized with the lowest Base Year LCOE value) emphasizes the effect of resource quality and the relative differences in the three future pathways independent of project finance assumptions. The ATB representative plant characteristics that best align with recently installed or anticipated near-term residential PV plants are associated with Res PV: CF 16.0%. Data for all the resource categories can be found in the ATB data spreadsheet.

Current Market Conditions
Historical Market Conditions
Normalized
The ATB representative plant characteristics that best align with recently installed or anticipated near-term residential PV plants are associated with Res PV: CF 16.0%.

The methodology for representing the CAPEX, O&M, and capacity factor assumptions behind each pathway is discussed in Projections Methodology. The three pathways are generally defined as:

  • High = Base Year (or near-term estimates of projects under construction) equivalent through 2050 maintains current relative technology cost differences
  • Mid = technology advances through continued industry growth, public and private R&D investments, and market conditions relative to current levels that may be characterized as “likely” or “not surprising”
  • Low = Technology advances that may occur with breakthroughs, increased public and private R&D investments, and/or other market conditions that lead to cost and performance levels that may be characterized as the “limit of surprise” but not necessarily the absolute low bound.

To estimate LCOE, assumptions about the cost of capital to finance electricity generation projects are required. For comparison in the ATB, two project finance structures are represented.

  • Current Market Conditions: The values of the production tax credit (PTC) and investment tax credit (ITC) are ramping down by 2020, at which time wind and solar projects may be financed with debt fractions similar to other technologies. This scenario reflects debt interest (4.4% nominal, 1.9% real) and return on equity rates (9.5% nominal, 6.8% real) to represent 2017 market conditions (AEO 2017) and a debt fraction of 60% for all electricity generation technologies. An economic life, or period over which the initial capital investment is recovered, of 20 years is assumed for all technologies. These assumptions are one of the project finance options in the ATB spreadsheet.
  • Long-Term Historical Market Conditions: Historically, debt interest and return on equity were represented with higher values. This scenario reflects debt interest (8% nominal, 5.4% real) and return on equity rates (13% nominal, 10.2% real) implemented in the ReEDS model and reflected in prior versions of the ATB and Standard Scenarios model results. A debt fraction of 60% for all electricity generation technologies is assumed. An economic life, or period over which the initial capital investment is recovered, of 20 years is assumed for all technologies. These assumptions are one of the project finance options in the ATB spreadsheet.

These parameters are held constant for estimates representing the Base Year through 2050. No incentives such as the PTC or ITC are included. The equations and variables used to estimate LCOE are defined on the equations and variables page. For illustration of the impact of changing financial structures such as WACC and economic life, see Project Finance Impact on LCOE. For LCOE estimates for High, Mid, and Low scenarios for all technologies, see 2017 ATB Cost and Performance Summary.

The LCOE for residential PV systems is calculated using the same financing parameters as the utility systems. Although we recognize that residential systems have a wide range of financing options available to them (e.g., cash payment, loan, and lease), we represent LCOEs using these utility-based financing calculations in order to allow better comparison against the utility system LCOEs.

In general, the degree of adoption of a range of technology innovations distinguishes the High, Mid, and Low cost cases. These projections represent the following trends to reduce CAPEX and FOM.

  • Modules
    • Increased module efficiencies and increased production-line throughput to decrease CAPEX; overhead costs on a per-kilowatt will go down if efficiency and throughput improvement are realized.
    • Reduced wafer thickness or the thickness of thin-film semiconductor layers
    • Development of new semiconductor materials
    • Development of larger manufacturing facilities in low-cost regions
  • Balance of system (BOS)
    • Increased module efficiency, reducing the size of the installation
    • Development of racking systems that enhance energy production or require less robust engineering
    • Integration of racking or mounting components in modules
    • Reduction of supply chain complexity and cost
      • Creation of standard packages system design
      • Improvement of supply chains for BOS components in modules
    • Improved power electronics
      • Improvement of inverter prices and performance, possibly by integrating micro-inverters
    • Decreased installation costs and margins
      • Reduction of supply chain margins (e.g., profit and overhead charged by suppliers, manufacturer, distributors, and retailers); this will likely occur naturally as the U.S. PV industry grows and matures.
      • Streamlining of installation practices through improved workforce development and training, and developing standardized PV hardware
      • Expansion of access to a range of innovative financing approaches and business models
      • Development of best practices for permitting interconnection, and PV installation such as subdivision regulations, new construction guidelines, and design requirements.

FOM cost reduction represents optimized O&M strategies, reduced component replacement costs, and lower frequency of component replacement..

References

Gagnon, Pieter, Robert Margolis, Jennifer Melius, Caleb Phillips, and Ryan Elmore. 2016. Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Technical Potential in the United States: A Detailed Assessment. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-65298. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65298.pdf.
Lopez, Anthony, Billy Roberts, Donna Heimiller, Nate Blair, and Gian Porro. 2012. U.S. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-51946. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51946.pdf.
Barbose, Galen, and Naïm Dargouth. 2016. Tracking the Sun IX: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. LBNL-1006036. August 2016. https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/tracking_the_sun_ix_report.pdf.
Feldman, David, Robert Margolis, Paul Denholm, and Joseph Stekli. 2016. Exploring the Potential Competitiveness of Utility-Scale Photovoltaics plus Batteries with Concentrating Solar Power, 2015–2030. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-66592. August 2016. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66592.pdf.
Fu, Ran, Donald Chung, Travis Lowder, David Feldman, Kristen Ardani, and Robert Margolis. 2016. U.S. Photovoltaic (PV) Prices and Cost Breakdowns: Q1 2016 Benchmarks for Residential, Commercial, and Utility-Scale Systems. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/PR-6A20-67142. September 2016. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/67142.pdf.
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). 2016a. Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy. November 2016. https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost/pdf/capcost_assumption.pdf.
Jordan, Dirk C., and Sarah R. Kurtz. 2013. Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: An Analytical Review. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/JA-5200-51664. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pip.1182/full.
Cole, Wesley, Haley Lewis, Ben Sigrin, and Robert Margolis. 2016. 'Interactions of Rooftop PV Deployment with the Capacity Expansion of the Bulk Power System.' Applied Energy 168 (April):473–481. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.02.004.
Woodhouse, Michael, Rebecca Jones-Albertus, David Feldman, Ran Fu, Kelsey Horowitz, Donald Chung, Dirk Jordan, and Sarah Kurtz. 2016. On the Path to SunShot: The Role of Advancements in Solar Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-65464. May 2016. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65872.pdf.
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). 2017. Annual Energy Outlook 2017 with Projections to 2050. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy. January 5, 2017. http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2017).pdf.